On September 21, 2024, Sri Lanka held its highly anticipated presidential election. This was the first election since the nation’s devastating economic crisis in 2022, marking a critical moment for its political future. The country’s past two years have been defined by political unrest, financial instability, and a desperate attempt to rebuild a flailing economy. The presidential election has provided an opportunity for Sri Lankans to choose a leader capable of guiding the nation out of its hardships.
The race has been closely followed, not only by Sri Lankans but by the international community as well. With geopolitical complexities involving its relationships with China, India, and other global powers, the election’s outcome will significantly impact both the domestic and international landscape.
Background of the Economic Crisis
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis reached its peak in 2022 when the country faced its worst financial downturn since independence. The crisis was primarily fueled by a combination of external debt, corruption, mismanagement, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Key industries, such as tourism and agriculture, were severely affected. The situation was worsened by years of unsustainable government borrowing to fund large infrastructure projects, particularly those involving Chinese loans. The result was a massive debt burden that the country could no longer service.
As inflation soared and the country ran out of foreign reserves, essential imports such as fuel, medicine, and food became scarce. Daily power cuts, fuel shortages, and soaring prices led to widespread protests. The civil unrest reached its apex when protesters stormed the presidential palace in July 2022, leading then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and resign. His departure left a vacuum of leadership and trust in the government, culminating in a major political crisis.
The new government, led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, tried to stabilize the economy by securing a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and undertaking crucial economic reforms. While some progress has been made, the challenges remain immense, and the 2024 presidential election was seen as a referendum on the current government’s handling of the crisis.
Key Candidates in the 2024 Election
The 2024 presidential race featured a wide array of candidates, with two main frontrunners: Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent president and leader of the United National Party (UNP).
- Sajith Premadasa: Premadasa is the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who was assassinated in 1993. Known for his populist policies and grassroots connections, Sajith positioned himself as the candidate for change. His campaign focused on addressing the needs of the ordinary Sri Lankan, promising to alleviate poverty, reform governance, and reduce corruption. Premadasa was vocal about the need to renegotiate the country’s foreign debt and reduce its dependency on China, while strengthening ties with India and other global powers.
- Ranil Wickremesinghe: Wickremesinghe, the current president, faced a tough battle in retaining power. His government’s handling of the post-crisis recovery has been met with mixed reactions. While some praised his efforts to stabilize the economy, secure the IMF bailout, and initiate fiscal reforms, others criticized him for not doing enough to address corruption and for the slow pace of recovery. His international ties, especially his relationship with China, were a central theme of his campaign. Wickremesinghe sought to balance the interests of both China and India, arguing that maintaining good relations with both powers was crucial for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.
Key Issues Shaping the Election
- Economic Recovery: The foremost concern for Sri Lankans heading into the election was the state of the economy. While inflation had begun to ease, the country remained deeply in debt. Candidates had to present their vision for managing the debt crisis, restoring economic growth, and creating jobs. The debate also centered on how to balance austerity measures required by the IMF with the need to support the poorest segments of society, many of whom have been hit hardest by the crisis.
- Geopolitical Strategy: Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, particularly its relationships with China and India, played a significant role in the election. Over the past decade, Sri Lanka had leaned heavily on Chinese investment for infrastructure projects. However, this led to concerns over “debt diplomacy” and fears that China was exerting undue influence over the country’s sovereignty. Premadasa, for instance, advocated for a stronger relationship with India, while Wickremesinghe defended his government’s balanced approach.
- Corruption and Governance: Corruption has been a perennial issue in Sri Lankan politics. Both leading candidates promised to tackle corruption, but voters were skeptical, as past governments had failed to deliver on similar promises. Reforming public institutions, ensuring transparency, and holding officials accountable were key issues that many voters wanted to see addressed.
- Social Welfare: With a large portion of the population living in poverty, social welfare programs were a critical issue. Premadasa, in particular, emphasized expanding welfare schemes, improving healthcare, and providing relief to families affected by the economic crisis. Wickremesinghe, while also acknowledging the importance of social welfare, stressed the need for fiscal discipline and avoiding populist measures that could derail the country’s economic recovery.
Sri Lanka’s Strategic Importance
The importance of Sri Lanka extends beyond its domestic issues due to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. For years, the country has been a key player in regional geopolitics, sitting at the center of major shipping routes. This has made it a focal point of interest for global powers, especially China, India, and the United States.
- China: China has invested heavily in Sri Lanka through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with large-scale infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port and the Colombo Port City. These investments, while providing much-needed development, have also increased Sri Lanka’s debt to China. Critics argue that this has led to a situation where Sri Lanka is vulnerable to Chinese influence, particularly after it was forced to lease Hambantota Port to a Chinese company for 99 years due to its inability to repay loans.
- India: India, Sri Lanka’s neighbor and long-standing partner, has been wary of China’s growing influence in the region. The two nations share cultural and historical ties, and India has provided significant economic assistance to Sri Lanka, especially during the economic crisis. Premadasa has advocated for strengthening relations with India, while Wickremesinghe has sought to maintain a more neutral stance, balancing relations with both India and China.
- The United States: The U.S. has been increasingly involved in the Indo-Pacific region, and Sri Lanka plays a key role in its strategic calculations. Washington has been promoting closer military and economic ties with Colombo, and the election outcome could influence the extent of U.S.-Sri Lanka cooperation.
The Path Forward
The 2024 presidential election marked a critical juncture in Sri Lanka’s history. With the nation still reeling from the aftershocks of its economic collapse, voters faced a difficult choice between continuity and change. Whoever emerged victorious would need to navigate complex domestic and international challenges.
Economic recovery remains at the forefront, and the new president will need to balance austerity measures with the need to provide social support to a struggling population. Additionally, the country’s foreign policy will be closely watched, as Sri Lanka continues to balance its relationships with China, India, and other global powers.
The road to recovery will not be easy, but the election has provided Sri Lanka with an opportunity to reset its course and build a more stable and prosperous future.
